Welcome to this week’s edition of “REDMAP Rundown,” a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.
In this week’s “REDMAP Rundown,” Norquist talks political investments, we hear more about why state races matter more than ever and in the states: Pennsylvania voting can change your life, Texas sees changes coming, Florida (and national) Democrats continue to fear the force, and the Delaware GOP is taking advantage of the national mood.
Grover Norquist writes, “Conservatives face a dilemma that can become an opportunity. The 2010 election will decide whether America continues to careen toward a future somewhere between France and Greece or puts on the brakes, stops the bleeding, and earns a pause that allows the forces of freedom to begin the rebuilding. November 2010 not only gives Republicans the opportunity to recapture the House by winning a net 40 seats and strengthening their position in the Senate to guarantee the ability to filibuster on any issue even if one or two Republicans go ‘wobbly,’ but the 37 gubernatorial races, 1,159 state senate seats, and 4,958 house seats at stake will decide who writes the redistricting lines for the U.S. Congress and the state legislatures themselves. If Republicans can win 107 key state legislative races in just 16 states they will fully control the drawing of nine new congressional districts awarded during 2011 reapportionment. A victory in the 107 key races would affect the redrawing of maps in five states projected to lose six congressional districts during 2011 reapportionment, which could ultimately result in a minimum of 20 new Republican U.S. House seats for the next 10 years. Ed Gillespie, who is organizing the effort to win state legislative seats through the Republican State Leadership Committee, points out that it will cost Republicans 31.5 million non-federal dollars today to win those contested state legislative seats that will create safer Republican House seats that would otherwise cost 255 million federal dollars to hold over the next decade. (This is about as good an investment as one can make in politics.)
“According to the early projections for this year’s census, a major partisan realignment is again in the offing,” writes Peter Roff for U.S. News and World Reports. “Most political forecasters are now looking seriously at the possibility that Republicans will win back control of Congress this year. They are seeing the forest but not the trees. The real battle to determine the nation’s political alignment for at least the next decade is happening down ballot and below the radar. By law, the results of the 2010 census will lead to a reshuffling of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. And this year’s elections will in many cases determine who will have the authority to draw each state’s new congressional map, which, in turn, will shape the political battlefield until the next census in 2020. Both parties are girding for the fight, but the GOP is poised to emerge with its strongest hand in decades.”
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports, “Democrats have controlled the chamber for more than three years, but that could change in November. The party holds an edge of only 104-99, and with polls showing that Republicans could do well this year both in Pennsylvania and nationally, Republicans are bent on recapturing power. ‘Given the national mood and the House districts that will be “in play” this November,’ said Harrisburg-based Republican political strategist Charlie Gerow, ‘there’s no question that Republicans believe they have a very good shot at regaining control of the state House.’”
We weighed in on PA Republicans making their job a little easier: “With support for Democrat policies slipping and voters at all levels throwing their support behind the GOP, Republicans marked the 56th and 57th state legislative special election victories [Tuesday] night, since President Barack Obama was elected. In Pennsylvania’s 138th House District, Republican Marcia Hahn defeated Democrat Cory D. Miller and in the 147th House District, Republican Marcy Toepel was victorious over Democrat Bob Dodge.”
“Voting in today’s mid-term primary election can change your life, [Pennsylvania] political officials say. This election will help decide who will represent you in Washington D.C. Even though this year is not a high-profile election like the presidential year, it is just as important. Because of this year’s Census, this election has deep, complex political implications. Winners of state Senate and House races will be able to redistrict national congressional district boundaries based on the information provided by the Census. The redistricting process is used to determine representation in government and determine the allocation of resources.
In Oregon, Gary Wilhelms writes, “Redistricting is the single most partisan political project our Legislature faces every 10 years. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Legislators are politicians, after all, and they are partisan.”
“Having waited 40 years for a congressman of its own, the Permian Basin and its political advocates hope statewide congressional redistricting next year does not reverse that achievement. U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway, R-Midland, whose 11th Congressional District runs east 300 miles, said fall elections must raise the number of Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives in Austin from 77 to at least 80.”
Democrats are paying attention to redistricting too. Texas Rep. Mark Strama “sees more change coming. Lawmakers will tackle redistricting in 2011, and the 2012 elections, based on new political maps, could bring in a relatively large class of freshman. Another way to say it: A relatively large number of veterans could be done after the next session.”
On a national scale, the Dems are really taking it to extremes. Our friends at the Huffington Post write, “In six months, voters may determine control of Congress for the next decade in elections for governors and legislatures that will control the redistricting process in most states. Our opponents understand these high stakes and are highly-skilled practitioners in exploiting the redistricting process. Bush-era operatives including Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie recently reemerged with plans to take control of key state capitols. Rove clearly hopes to use redistricting in the states to resurrect his dashed dream of a permanent Republican majority. Progressives must stop Rove and the Right’s redistricting plans in 2010.”
Florida is reminded of why redistricting matters. The state “voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1996 and in 2008. … Yet the state’s congressional delegation is 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats. In the state Senate, it’s 26 Republicans and 13 Democrats, with one Palm Beach County vacancy that a Democrat soon will fill. In the House, it’s 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats.”
“One of the last by-products of the 2002 redistricting battle at the [Colorado] capitol is just a governor’s signature away from being reversed. Tuesday, the Senate gave final approval to House Bill 1408, which would change the guidance to the courts that must create new congressional boundaries after each census, if the General Assembly fails to draw the maps for those districts.”
“The Delaware Republicans unfurled three new candidacies for the state House of Representatives on the same day, a sign they are really serious about trying to take back the majority. … The next General Assembly will be responsible for redistricting — the readjustment of the legislative district lines every 10 years after the census — and it gives the majority essentially a free hand at shoring up its own members. The House has 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans. … The Republicans have the national mood of voter discontent on their side, as well as the political history that shows the president’s party typically losing legislative seats here in mid-term elections.”