Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.
In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Sabato predicts 8-12 chamber pick-ups, Even smoother sailing for Republicans, 10-year counterstrike, Ohio polling, Michigan’s makeup and growing majorities in Texas.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball made headlines last week predicting a Republican takeover of the U.S. House and a possible tie in the Senate. He also notes, “The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans’ 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.”
Looking ahead, NRO’s Jim Geraghty writes, “Then, of course, there is the factor of redistricting. … In July, the Republican State Leadership Committee — the national committee that tracks, coordinates, and leads GOP efforts at the state-legislative level — projected that Democrats would not take control of a single state legislative chamber in the country this year, and that Republicans would pick up four chambers, with twelve additional Democrat-controlled chambers in key states ‘in play.’ Their assessment concluded, ‘Republicans have an opportunity to create 20–25 new Republican Congressional Districts through the redistricting process over the next five election cycles, solidifying a Republican House majority. Some House Democrats who survive the 2010 onslaught will find themselves in even less favorable terrain in 2012, while Republicans who squeak by this year may find smoother sailing by Election Day 2012.”
“Just a reminder: with all this talk of Republicans taking back the House of Representatives and winning back some Senate seats this fall, don’t forget the other, possibly bigger, consequence of the 2010 elections. Redistricting,” writes The Atlantic’s Chris Good. “After the 2010 Census, state legislatures and governors will redraw the lines of congressional districts, arm-wrestling over lines that will determine where more liberal and conservative populations are placed. [Republicans] are poised for a timely counterstrike that could give them an edge in congressional races for the next 10 years.”
In Ohio, “Republican candidates have grabbed double-digit leads in the races for governor and the U.S. Senate, and the swelling red tide could lead to a GOP sweep of statewide offices, the first Dispatch Poll of the 2010 campaign shows. … If Ohioans’ sentiments favoring Republicans extend to legislative and congressional races, that could mean the GOP will retake control of the Ohio House and vulnerable first-term Democratic members of Congress such as Mary Jo Kilroy of Columbus will be knocked out of office.”
“State legislative races have gotten a lot of attention this year. … In Michigan and across the country, the outcome of state legislative races could well determine the makeup of Congress in the 2012 election and beyond. For certain, Michigan stands to lose one of its congressional seats this year, not because the state has lost so much in population over the past decade – it has lost a little – but because other states have grown so much faster.”
The Texas Tribune writes, “The political environment is working against [Democrats], and so are the current political maps. Most of the swing seats on the Texas House ballot are now in Democratic hands, the result of the electoral whittling that shaved a dozen seats from the GOP majority from 2002 to now; seats that are in competitive districts were mostly held by the R’s, and now they’re mostly held by the D’s. So Republicans have more opportunities to gain seats than the Democrats do. And if the mood of the electorate doesn’t change, that could help the Republicans unseat Democrats who wouldn’t be imperiled in a normal election year. … The Texas House and Senate are already Republican. The Senate’s not in play, but a bigger majority for the GOP in the House could help that gang with political redistricting next year and would give Republican leaders a stronger hand in covering a budget shortfall estimated at $18 billion.”
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