Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.
In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: New predictions, 2010’s consequences, Finishing strong, Raising the stakes, Hanging in the balance and the Wave that’s about to hit …
“Ten states, including Illinois, New York and Ohio, could lose seats in the House of Representatives, according to new predictions that underscore the battles already brewing over how to draw congressional district boundaries.” USA Today reports, “Florida, South Carolina, Texas and five other states could gain House seats by the 2012 election as part of the once-in-a-decade apportionment process triggered by the Census, estimates by the non-partisan Election Data Services show. Chris Jankowski, who directs the redistricting effort for the Republican State Leadership Committee, predicts the GOP could add as many as 25 seats in Congress depending on how boundary lines are drawn in key states. The group is ready to spend $20 million to elect Republican state lawmakers who could affect the process, he said. ‘We see a tremendous opportunity to impact control of Congress in 2012 through the state elections that are about to take place,’ Jankowski said.”
Peter Roff writes in U.S. News and World Reports, “It’s beginning to look like the Democrats are going to have to deal with the consequences of the 2010 election for a very, very long time. The Republican State Leadership Committee, an organization that focuses on GOP state legislative races reports that the American political landscape has changed dramatically over the last two years. ‘The 2010 state legislative elections,’ the committee says, ‘have become a referendum on the Democrat approach to the economy and government spending at all levels.’ The committee’s September’s 2010 analysis says, ‘In state after state, Democrat governors and legislatures responded to the economic crisis by increasing taxes and failing to cut spending, mirroring the approach so aggressively pursued by President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats.’ The upshot of all this is that the move by voters, especially independents, back toward the Republicans could hand the GOP the pens with which it can redraw congressional lines in a number of important states–thus altering the makeup of the Congress for the next decade.”
“Earlier today, National Review Online caught up with Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, outside of the Newseum. We asked Gillespie, a former counselor to Pres. George W. Bush and RNC chairman, about what the GOP needs to do to finish strong in the final stretch of the midterm campaign.”
“The stakes are high: More than 6,100 state legislative seats and a record 37 governorships are up for grabs Nov. 2. The winners will influence policy on everything from taxes to implementation of the nation’s health care law. They will draw new boundaries for legislative and congressional districts that will long shape the political landscape,” reports USA Today. “The Republican Governors Association (RGA) collected a record $58.3 million through June 30, compared with $40.4 million for its Democratic counterpart, federal records show. The Republican State Leadership Committee had a more than 3-to-1 fundraising edge over the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee at the end of August.”
“Hanging in the balance is which party will win control of the 100-member Indiana House not just for the next two years, but also potentially for the next decade. To the winner goes the power to either boost or block Gov. Mitch Daniels’ agenda in his final two years as governor and the authority to draw the state’s legislative maps. House Minority Leader Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, and others say voters know what’s at stake. ‘Most folks that I talk to are aware that this is a critical election,’ said Bosma, who blames the Democrat-drawn maps of 2000 for his party holding only 48 of the 100 House seats. ‘Many presume that critical element is due to what’s going on in Washington, D.C. But a big handful of people — normal, everyday folks — understand that the General Assembly elected this year will really pre-select legislative and congressional leaders for the next decade. Not the people, but the party.’”
And finally, Stuart Rothenberg writes, “Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a ‘normal’ political wave, while others expect a political tsunami. Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory has larger ramifications than merely who will control the House for the next two years. Waves seem to work themselves down the ballot, and a national Republican Congressional wave surely is going to be mirrored by strong GOP gains in state legislatures and gubernatorial contests.”
The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.