Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s big edition of the Rundown: Independent analysts suggest surge could be even bigger than GOP claims, How this affects ’12, Sabato says “most significant Democratic disasters” will be on state level, Fixed, Triage time, The turnout gap, The gift that keeps on giving the whole decade, Ohio “swingiest of the swing states” and Indian has bad news for Dems …

Michael Cooper at the New York Times writes, “The midterm elections are being closely watched to determine whether Republicans will have a majority in Congress for the next two years. But it is the outcome of a lower-profile battle over state legislatures that could strengthen the Republican Party for a decade. Republicans are within reach of gaining control of eight or more chambers in state legislatures this fall, according to interviews with Republicans, Democrats and independent political analysts. … For Democrats, the prospect of legislative losses could not come at a worse time. … Republicans are predicting that they will gain at least 10 chambers this fall, which they say would give them the power to redraw up to 25 Congressional districts. ‘That will have a huge impact down the line,’ said Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican Party who now runs [the RSLC]. ‘Not just on taxes, schools and roads and the important business of state government, but also in terms of representation for a decade in Congress.’ Some independent analysts suggest that the Republican surge could be even greater.”

Jumping past this year’s surge, Hotline On Call reports, “There has been — and will be — plenty of discussion whether Democrats can hold on to the House and the Senate this year and what that will mean for Pres. Obama’s re-election prospects in ’12. But for a better indication of how Obama ’12 chances, it is worth watching the most competitive state legislature races this fall. … ‘[Democrats] will be very lucky if they hang on to a single chamber that they [say lie squarely in Obama’s re-election roadmap],” said Chris Jankowski, the Executive Director of the GOP’s “REDMAP” redistricting program. … ‘We can confidently say that Republicans are not going to lose a single chamber,’ Jankowski said. Jankowski added that Republicans are in position to go after Obama’s base. ‘Every district we’ll play in was won by Obama,’ he said. That, Jankowski said, will pose problems for Obama in ’12 … The RSLC will focus on providing grassroots, field and messaging support. If the election breaks the GOP’s way, these races will present an uphill climb for Obama. ‘When you couple that with the wave of new Republican governors, then you’ll have a very solid Republican field team in states that are going to be swing states — they have to contested by both presidential candidates,’ Jankowski said. ‘For Obama, they will be his path to re-election.’”

“Will President Obama’s midterm campaign push help the Democrats?” The Washington Post to UVA’s political prognosticator Larry Sabato who thinks, “Presidents like to believe that their work can tame the seas. But when fierce political winds build a towering wave, even a presidential-size yacht can be capsized. … The most significant Democratic disasters will likely come at the state level. On the eve of redistricting, Republicans will gain perhaps eight governorships, 400 to 500 state legislators and eight to 14 new state legislative chambers.”

The Fix’s Aaron Blake takes a look at “The top eight redistricting battles of 2010.”

“Triage Time For Democrats: There is no shortage of bad news for Democrats these days,” says Charlie Cook. “One expert on state legislative races privately put the over/under at 500 seats nationwide. In other words, Republicans are equally likely to gain more than 500 seats as they are to gain fewer. The GOP will probably also win control of many statehouse chambers, which will have an obvious impact on congressional and state legislative redistricting next year. That’s a big deal.”

“When you start to look at it state by state, if there’s a big Republican wave election in November, the advantage for the Republicans in the redistricting would be fairly dramatic,” the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Tim Storey tells NPR. “‘They could find that they have almost unilateral authority to draw about 160 U.S. House seats.’ That Republican wave is looking more and more likely. A recent study by Curtis Gans, the director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, shows that Republicans are already showing up to the polls in greater numbers than ever before. ‘The turnout gap is 4 million people,’ Gans tells Raz. ‘It is the first time since 1930 that Republican turnout has exceeded Democratic.’ While Republican voters are turning out in historically high numbers, Democrats are hitting historic lows. … This lack of enthusiasm could have a lasting effect on congressional politics for a decade to come.”

The Los Angeles Times reports, “Generally speaking, strategists say, campaign budgets will double in targeted races compared with non-redistricting years. ‘Whoever has the pen in hand has the opportunity,’ said Thomas M. Reynolds, a former congressman and vice chairman of the [RSLC]. ‘It is a gift that will keep on giving,’ Ed Gillespie, head of the RSLC, told a Washington gathering of potential donors. He suggested that $1 spent today on drawing a safe congressional seat would save many times the cost of winning a competitive race later. ‘This is one of the best investments you can make.’”

Agence France-Presse has a brief primer on redistricting for our worldwide friends. “President Barack Obama’s Democratic allies and Republican foes are battling over a once-in-a-decade prize in November mid-term elections: power to literally redraw the US political map. … The November 2 elections will decide which party controls key state legislatures and governorships that typically carry out the task of redrawing a state’s congressional districts … ‘The redistricting process has a large impact on whether or not any given seat is contestable,’ said Justin Buchler, an expert on redistricting who teaches political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.”

Speaking of the Buckeye State, PoliticsDaily.com labels it the “swingiest of swing states” saying, “right now, the advantage that Democrats won in 2008 with Barack Obama’s victory and the pickup of U.S. and state House seats is seriously threatened. Republicans also seem poised to take back the state House and hold onto their majority in the state Senate. If they control the governorship and both houses of the state Legislature as well as a majority of congressional seats, it would have a major impact on the redistricting of the state following this year’s census, when Ohio is expected to lose two U.S. House seats. And that could have a spillover effect in 2012.”

And in Indiana, Hoosier political godfather, Jack Colwell, writes, “Republicans almost certainly will do all the redistricting in Indiana. For congressional districts. For the Indiana House. For the Indiana Senate. And that’s bad news for Democrats for a decade. In most states, including Indiana, state legislatures do the redrawing of districts every 10 years. While there are close battles in some states, as Democrats try to keep Republicans from taking control of more state legislative chambers amidst a Republican tide, the battle already is over in Indiana at least for drawing congressional and Indiana Senate districts and, unless there is a monumental political turnaround, for the Indiana House as well. This November, with that expected Republican tide in a Republican-leaning state and with the governor deeply involved in recruiting and funding GOP candidates, it is highly unlikely that Democrats can retain a House majority. Republicans then could draw the House districts and negate any need for a commission for congressional districts by joining with Senate Republicans in that remap. Result: Bad news for Democrats, not just on Nov. 2, but for a decade.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Republicans riding the wave, Oregon’s positioning, Holding the pen in Oklahoma, Growth in Texas, Interference in Mississippi and Cali’s new ideas.

“President Obama won every state that touches the Great Lakes as he marched toward the presidency, while Democrats picked up 10 Republican-held House seats in the region. But in politics, timing is everything, and now the GOP looks poised to make new gains in key races that could give Republicans a long-term toehold in a region that has trended away from them for the last decade,” reports The Hotline.  “The often overlooked state legislative landscape is in as much turmoil as federal races are this year. And with state legislators set to take up decennial redistricting over the next two years, Republicans have chosen exactly the right time to surf the electoral wave. … This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House. … ‘If it touches a Great Lake, it’s a good state for Republicans this year,’ [REDMAP Executive Director Chris] Jankowski said.”

“Republicans can take control of the 30-member Oregon State Senate if they are able to net four seats in the midterm elections,” according to this week’s Townhall.com spotlight.  “Even if they don’t win the upper chamber, getting closer to parity with the Democrats in the senate would give the Republicans a strong negotiating position with a friendly Governor.  In the 60-member Oregon House of Representatives, a GOP takeover is seven seats away.  Because Democrats currently have a super-majority, with slightly more than three-fifths of the seats on their side of the aisle, they don’t even need the Republicans to show up to pass bills at will.  Republicans are well positioned to not only end the Democrat super-majority, but also to retake the majority that Oregon Democrats captured during the 2006 mid-term elections.”

“Members were named Thursday to a House of Representatives Committee assigned to work on redrawing [Oklahoma] House and federal legislative districts using data from the 2010 census.  The Legislature, controlled by Republicans for the first time during the redistricting process, will take on the task next year of coming up with three sets of districts — one for the congressional seats, another for the state House and a third for the state Senate. It must be done every 10 years, by law, after the official U.S. Census Bureau figures are available.”

KFOX-TV reports, “Politicians across Texas gathered in El Paso on Monday for a hearing about redrawing the district lines in the state, a move that could cost El Paso a seat in the Texas House of Representatives. The House Redistricting Committee listened to concerns, but Rep. Joe Pickett who is a member of the committee, said nothing will be decided until the official numbers come out in February 2011 or April 2011. … He said since the state is growing, Texas may gain three or four seats in the U.S. Congress.”

“Both [Mississippi] lead legislators in the effort to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative districts say they want to accomplish the feat without judicial interference.  For them to accomplish their goal, they must get redistricting plans approved by a majority of both chambers of the Mississippi Legislature.”

“California voters have become all too familiar with the ferociously partisan, once-a-decade drawing of political boundaries. Even so, the 2010 election holds something new. Two wildly different measures targeting redistricting are on the ballot and an independent commission is poised to craft legislative districts for the first time.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Republicans riding the wave, Oregon’s positioning, Holding the pen in Oklahoma, Growth in Texas, Interference in Mississippi and Cali’s new ideas.

“President Obama won every state that touches the Great Lakes as he marched toward the presidency, while Democrats picked up 10 Republican-held House seats in the region. But in politics, timing is everything, and now the GOP looks poised to make new gains in key races that could give Republicans a long-term toehold in a region that has trended away from them for the last decade,” reports The Hotline.  “The often overlooked state legislative landscape is in as much turmoil as federal races are this year. And with state legislators set to take up decennial redistricting over the next two years, Republicans have chosen exactly the right time to surf the electoral wave. … This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House. … ‘If it touches a Great Lake, it’s a good state for Republicans this year,’ [REDMAP Executive Director Chris] Jankowski said.”

“Republicans can take control of the 30-member Oregon State Senate if they are able to net four seats in the midterm elections,” according to this week’s Townhall.com spotlight.  “Even if they don’t win the upper chamber, getting closer to parity with the Democrats in the senate would give the Republicans a strong negotiating position with a friendly Governor.  In the 60-member Oregon House of Representatives, a GOP takeover is seven seats away.  Because Democrats currently have a super-majority, with slightly more than three-fifths of the seats on their side of the aisle, they don’t even need the Republicans to show up to pass bills at will.  Republicans are well positioned to not only end the Democrat super-majority, but also to retake the majority that Oregon Democrats captured during the 2006 mid-term elections.”

“Members were named Thursday to a House of Representatives Committee assigned to work on redrawing [Oklahoma] House and federal legislative districts using data from the 2010 census.  The Legislature, controlled by Republicans for the first time during the redistricting process, will take on the task next year of coming up with three sets of districts — one for the congressional seats, another for the state House and a third for the state Senate. It must be done every 10 years, by law, after the official U.S. Census Bureau figures are available.”

KFOX-TV reports, “Politicians across Texas gathered in El Paso on Monday for a hearing about redrawing the district lines in the state, a move that could cost El Paso a seat in the Texas House of Representatives. The House Redistricting Committee listened to concerns, but Rep. Joe Pickett who is a member of the committee, said nothing will be decided until the official numbers come out in February 2011 or April 2011. … He said since the state is growing, Texas may gain three or four seats in the U.S. Congress.”

“Both [Mississippi] lead legislators in the effort to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative districts say they want to accomplish the feat without judicial interference.  For them to accomplish their goal, they must get redistricting plans approved by a majority of both chambers of the Mississippi Legislature.”

“California voters have become all too familiar with the ferociously partisan, once-a-decade drawing of political boundaries. Even so, the 2010 election holds something new. Two wildly different measures targeting redistricting are on the ballot and an independent commission is poised to craft legislative districts for the first time.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: The real fight of 2010, a “double win” for Republicans, complete control, eyeing the Great Lakes, spotlighting Indiana, gaining the advantage in Pennsylvania, Koch keeps fighting in NY and Mississippi wants to hear it.

“Forget Congress,” writes Gannett’s Chuck Raasch. “The real political fight in 2010, one with consequences for the next five elections to follow, is the battle for state legislatures and governorships all across the country. Key 2010 battlegrounds are in Michigan, among other Great Lakes states; and in states with growing populations in the South and Southwest. ‘Political signs point to a Republican year in state legislative races this fall, and that could spell trouble for Democrats in Washington for years to come,’ said Tim Storey, an analyst with the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures. Storey said 27 state houses or senate chambers could change control to the other party. … If Nov. 2 is a big Republican wave election, it could give the GOP sole redistricting authority in the drawing of more than 160 House districts — nearly six times more than their Democratic counterparts.’”

Susan Milligan reports in the Boston Globe, “Adding to the potential bonanza for Republicans is that this is also a US census year, meaning congressional districts across the nation will be redrawn based on the 2010 population statistics. The better the performance by Republicans at the local level, the more influence they will have in reshaping the political boundaries for the following election. ‘It looks like a double win for the Republicans in the 2010 elections,’’ said Jeffrey M. Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University. ‘They’ll not only gain seats this time, but they’ll plant the seeds for gaining seats in 2012.’”

The Hill’s Shane D’Aprile writes, “Republicans could hold complete control over the redistricting process in several key states after the 2010 elections. If the party’s gubernatorial candidates were to emerge with wins in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan — all states where Republicans either lead or are tied in recent polls — and the GOP holds or wins control of legislative chambers in those same states, Republicans could monopolize the post-2010 redraw. ‘If Republicans do really well on Election Day, they could swing a lot more seats that they would have control over,’ said analyst Kimball Brace, who heads Election Data Services, a bipartisan firm that specializes in the census and redistricting. ‘A shift of 10 to 15 [state legislative] chambers is enough to swing [the process] dramatically toward the Republicans.’”

“While attention once again is focused on the debilitating political and policy fights in Washington,” Jerry Seib writes in the Wall Street Journal, “the most important political story of 2010 may lie in a series of gubernatorial and state legislative races in the same Great Lakes region of the upper Midwest. … In their quest for these prizes, Republicans are bringing significant resources to the table. Ed Gillespie, a former national party chairman, this year is running the RSLC, an organization devoted to electing state officials. He says the committee has assembled 85,000 individual donors and will bring $18 million to state-level battles, including many in the upper Midwest.”

“Republicans currently control the Indiana Governor’s mansion and the state Senate (by a wide margin), and if they can capture a majority in the state House, the GOP can effectively reshape Hoosier State politics for the next decade. With the Democrats holding a narrow 52-48 lead in the House, the 2010 elections could be a game changer for the Indiana GOP. According to House Republican Leader Brian Bosma, ‘This is the year that we will predetermine state legislative and congressional leadership for the next decade through the maps.’”

“Pennsylvania is in a column of states where Republicans could have complete control over the redrawing of boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts to meet population shifts, according to The Hill.” The Daily Review reports, “Tom Corbett, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, holds a solid lead over Democratic candidate Dan Onorato, while Republicans have unbroken control of the state Senate and are within shot of taking away control of the state House from Democrats if things break their way. The current House breakdown is 104 Democrats to 98 Republicans with one vacancy. A GOP sweep would give the party a decided advantage in drawing districts that favor party candidates, strategists suggest.”

“Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch is in Rochester today to support his effort to convince the State Legislature to reform the process that establishes district boundaries. Koch is here to salute the ‘heros of reform’ — those candidates and incumbents who have signed his pledge, — and to call out those who haven’t.”

“A series of 12 open meetings will be held by Mississippi’s Standing Joint Legislative Committee on Reapportionment and Redistricting to gather citizen input before they begin the process of creating new legislative and congressional districts. Mississippians are asked to attend the meetings and voice their opinions before redistricting begins in early 2011. By that time, the state will have received federal census data to be used in the process of creating new districts based upon population shifts.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.