Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: The REDMAP Report, Broder’s view, far reaching effects on the state level, Oklahoma’s Republican districts, California panels, supermajorities and Oregon’s failed initiative.

In response to the unveiling of the first REDMAP Report, The Hill reports, “Republicans are forecasting widespread gains for the party this fall in legislative chambers across the country, which could give the party control over the redistricting process in a number of key states.  Former RNC Chairman and current head of the RSLC Ed Gillespie on Thursday predicted a minimum of 10 legislative chamber pick-ups for Republicans in 2010.  ‘This is the first time a wave election year is taking place in a year that ends in a zero,’ Gillespie said at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.  ‘We plan on holding all of our chambers,’ he said. ‘There are four states where we are very confident we’re going to win chambers — Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.’”  The Christian Science Monitor has video here.

The Washington Times’ Ralph Hallow concludes, “If Mr. Gillespie is right, the shift in statehouse control would be the largest gain since the 1994 ‘wave’ election that swept Republicans to power in Congress and that yielded the GOP a net gain of 19 state legislative chambers.  RSLC Vice Chairman Tom Reynolds said that ‘under a best-case scenario,’ the GOP would gain control of enough state legislative chambers to ensure that when the electoral map is redrawn after this year’s national census, Republicans will have at least 20 – maybe 25 – additional safe congressional districts.”

“If the GOP can take back the state Senate or Assembly this fall, that party will get a much larger role in drawing the boundaries of legislative districts that will stand for the next 10 years and exert a powerful influence on future elections,” according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  “With an eye on that prize, the national RSLC says the Wisconsin Senate is one of four legislative chambers that the GOP is counting on picking up around the country.  ‘There’s no question. It’s very rare that you see as much at stake as there is in the 2010 election,’ state Republican Party executive director Mark Jefferson said. ‘We’re very cognizant on this side that we need to take back at least one house of the Legislature.’”

The Detroit News reports, “Tom Reynolds, [RSLC Vice-Chair and REDMAP leader] said Michigan was a ‘perfect example’ of a state the GOP would like to target.  ‘They’re not talking about whether a Republican will win for governor,’ Reynolds said. ‘They’re talking about which one.’  And with the GOP in command of the state Senate, Republicans will be looking to snatch as many of the 24 seats occupied by Democrats that are being vacated or held by incumbents to gain control of the lower chamber.  The goal, say the organizers behind the Republican’s Redistricting Majority Project (REDMAP), is to gain GOP majorities this year to influence redistricting for the 2012 elections. Michigan is expected to lose a House seat because of its declining population and gains in population in the South.  That means the state’s 15-member House delegation will shrink to 14, and district lines will have to be redrawn by the state legislature and approved by the governor.”

David Broder observes, “In this high-stakes election of 2010, much attention naturally focuses on Republican efforts to come back in Congress and the Democrats’ drive to retain their large majorities in the House and Senate.  But for those gauging the long-term health of the two parties, nothing is more important than the fight for control of the 37 governorships and the legislatures on the ballot this November.”

“Forget the economy, health care, even which party controls Congress,” writes David N. Bass for the American Spectator, “the most far-reaching effect of the 2010 midterm elections could be felt at the state level. By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade — a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far-reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections.  That’s not hyperbole. Given the country’s closely divided electorate, the political fortunes of each party chiefly hinge on how redistricting pans out. That, in turn, hinges on how well Democrats and Republicans fare at the state level.  In 17 state legislatures, meanwhile, Democrats maintain a slim advantage in at least one chamber. In a good Republican year, several of those could flip. Even if a Democrat occupies the governor’s office or controls one legislative chamber, the GOP could significantly influence the process and curtail partisan gerrymandering by capturing at least part of the state government. Both national parties understand the implications, which is why they’re pouring $20 million apiece into competitive legislative races, with an eye toward strengthening their hand in redistricting.”

“The 2010 election season that begins [today] likely will reshape Oklahoma politics for the next decade,” reports The Oklahoman.  “That’s because the Legislature elected this year will be redrawing the state’s legislative districts, based on the 2010 Census. And for the first time in state history, the legislative leadership redrawing those districts almost certainly will be Republican.  And it could be Republican for a long time.”

The San Francisco Chronicle reports, “What has historically been a bureaucratic and secretive process of drawing California’s political boundaries has now become a contentious fight over race, power and government transparency.  Two years ago, voters created an independent commission to redraw the boundaries of California’s legislative districts, a process known as redistricting. But even before the new Citizens Redistricting Commission has begun its work, it has landed in a political tug-of-war between good-government groups and Democratic insiders.

“With the amount of money being spent on California’s marquee races for governor and senator this fall, it’s not surprising that the special election to be held on August 17 hasn’t garnered the same headlines as Whitman vs. Brown or Fiorina vs. Boxer. Yet, while Republicans are chomping at the bit to take on these big name Democrats, the battle in California’s 15th Senate district could be just as important to righting the future of the Golden State.  If Democrats manage to capture this seat, they would have control of 26 state Senate seats – one seat shy of the legislative supermajority that would give them free rein to pass huge budgets and impose massive tax hikes on Californians.  Although Democrats hold a six-point registration edge in this district, which runs from Santa Cruz and Santa Clara to Santa Barbara, Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee was able turn out an impressive number of voters in the June 22nd special primary election, which pitted candidates from all parties in a single contest. Blakeslee bested the second place finisher, Democrat John Laird, by more than 11,000 votes (eight percentage points), but he narrowly missed the 50-percent mark required to win the race outright without a follow-on special election.”

“Backers of a proposed ballot initiative that would change Oregon’s method of drawing new legislative districts failed to collect enough signatures.  Petition 50 would have allowed an independent panel to redraw Congressional districts every 10 years following the national census. State lawmakers currently handle the task.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Massive Dem losses predicted, Spotlighting state races, redistricting is a “high-stakes” war, Sweeping change in Pennsylvania, Delaware House trends, Koch’s enemies, “Communities of Interest,” Cali narrows and Jersey’s 800-pound Gorilla.

Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende writes, “Four months out from Election Day, the Democrats will probably lose the House and are in some danger of losing the Senate. But losing those legislative bodies would not be the most damaging aspect of the impending tsunami heading toward the Democratic Party. … These losses are likely to be massive, and illustrate the size of the impending voter revolt. And they could not come at a worse time. Combined with likely statehouse gains, they threaten to put Republicans in charge of redistricting for the first time in several generations, and will potentially provide the GOP with a top-tier crop of Presidential hopefuls in the future.”

The inaugural “State Race Spotlight” for Townhall.com begins, “Every decade the U.S. Congress plays musical chairs to the tune of the Census population counts – only in this re-apportionment version, the number of chairs stays the same, they just move to different states. By the time the counting (but not the arguing) is done in 2011, Texas looks to gain at least 3 additional seats in its Congressional delegation, thanks to strong population growth that has held up even as the recession has slowed growth in other formerly booming states. … In the Texas statehouse, the stakes are even higher, as the district boundaries will shift to reflect the growth at the suburban edges of Texas’ major cities. This will not be a quiet debate, as several rural incumbents could find themselves in a showdown with another incumbent for a consolidated district, while incumbents in the booming areas could find themselves living outside of their districts.”

“National party leaders are raising hundreds of millions for a high-stakes redistricting war that will define the political playing field for the next decade,” National Journal reports.  Voters typically ignore redistricting, the complex, often secretive process of redrawing the legislative and congressional district lines after the decennial census. But this year, redistricting is almost hot. GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.”

“If Republicans pick up just three seats in the 203-member Pennsylvania House of Representatives in the November election, it could bring sweeping policy changes to a state that can’t seem to make up its mind whether it wants to be blue or red,” reports The Associated Press. “The campaign news this summer has focused on the two high-profile races for governor and U.S. Senate, but the outcome of legislative races could largely determine what the state does about its multibillion-dollar budget shortfall, the funding crisis for public-sector pensions and redistricting — not to mention the thousands of bills lawmakers will introduce over the coming two-year session.”

“This is about trying to take back the majority in the state House of Representatives,” reports Delaware’s Dover Post.  “The 2010 election could be the last one for a long time to give the Republicans a chance to reclaim the House. The next session of the General Assembly is responsible for redistricting — the redrawing of the districts every 10 years to keep them equal in population — and Democratic majorities in both chambers could map with premeditated malice and get away with it. … Enough seats are in play for the Republicans conceivably to make a run at the majority.”

“About 110 people, including Democratic leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, are on the ‘Enemies of Reform’ list released Thursday by New York Uprising, a non-partisan coalition led by former New York City Mayor Ed Koch.  The group received signed pledges from 240 candidates who agreed to work for non-partisan, independent redistricting, an independent budget office and additional improvements to the budget process, and stronger ethics laws.  All 29 Senate Republicans are on board, even those who are not running for re-election.”

“Bravo Corpus Christi-area residents,” the Corpus Christi Caller editorializes, “for a healthy turnout at Wednesday’s state hearing on redistricting. The City Council chambers seating was packed. The consensus concept that emerged from the comments was that state House, Senate and congressional districts should encompass ‘communities of interest.’”

The Sacramento Bee reports, “The pool of potential members for the state’s legislative redistricting commission has been narrowed to 120 applicants, who will undergo personal interviews.  An ‘applicant review panel’ convened by the state auditor’s office — as decreed by Proposition 11, passed by voters in 2008 — winnowed the pool down to 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 40 independents who appear to roughly mirror the cultural makeup of the state’s population.”

Frank Hannon opines, “The minute the Census of 2010 becomes official and is on the Internet, you can bet 133 New Jersey residents will be analyzing the results. Included in the group will be 13 sitting congressmen and 120 New Jersey legislators.  With the census comes mandatory redistricting of both congressional and state legislative districts. There is not much public interest in the once-every-decade process but to New Jersey congressmen, state senators, and assembly members it is the 800-pound gorilla that can make or break them.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders.  To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown. This addition is a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). For those who are new, this weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Translating legislative control, Dems learning the difference between 10 and 12, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RGA friends weigh in on a lasting majority, CSM sees a mad scramble, Iowa dealing with loss and Massachusetts is “home” of the gerrymander.

The Washington Post’s Lois Romano kicks off today’s Rundown, reporting, “As the Beltway remains riveted on November’s congressional midterm elections, another political war is taking shape in small communities nationwide … The reason: Next year, state legislatures will take up redistricting, the once-a-decade task of redrawing congressional boundaries based on population shifts gleaned through the census. Some of the biggest names in politics have jumped into the hand-to-hand combat with an intensity generally reserved for a presidential race. Among those at the forefront: Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee; former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.); Democratic strategist Harold Ickes; GOP strategist Karl Rove; and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … ‘Having control of a legislature can translate into U.S. House seats being drawn for Republicans for a decade — compared to fighting it out district by district for control of the House every two years, which would costs millions,’ said Gillespie, who is chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.”

“A Democrat who can win in 2010 can be assumed to have a relatively safe district, just as a Republican who won in 2006 and ’08 can,” James Taranto writes for the Wall Street Journal. In 2012, however, 428 of the 435 congressional districts will have been redrawn owing to reapportionment and redistricting (the only exceptions are those that are coterminous with sparsely populated states). Many incumbents will be protected, but some will find themselves in less-safe districts, or in intraparty battles with fellow incumbents in states that lose congressional seats.

Larry Sabato enters Politico’s Arena, saying, “Once lost, the House will be tough to regain during Obama’s presidency. Redistricting is going to help the GOP at least marginally, given the number of governorships and state legislative berths it will add this November.”

The Washington Post reports, “… by January, more than half of the states will probably be under new management, including some of the biggest and most important. … One of the first areas where the changes in the governors’ mansions could be felt will be in the redistricting wars that will break out next year. [RGA Executive Director Nick] Ayers said redistricting presents an opportunity to gain 15 to 26 House seats, depending on who controls the redistricting machinery in the states. That alone could offset whatever happens in House races this November. But the implications go beyond that. Reapportionment and redistricting will affect the shape of the House through much of the coming decade. If Republicans take over the House in November and control enough governorships [and state legislatures] in key states next year, they could use the redistricting process to virtually lock in a majority that could last for several election cycles.”

“All eyes are on the US House in this fall’s election, but that’s not the only place where a political earthquake might shake up power,” according to the Christian Science Monitor’s editorial board. “A mad scramble is also on to influence elections for state legislatures, as well as governors. National political bigwigs and big dollars – record amounts, actually – are focused on these local races. The reason? This is a census year, and it is these newly elected officials who will use the new population numbers to redraw the boundaries of voter districts. Those districts will then set the contours of power and policy for the next decade. Republicans see the opportunity for a long-lasting comeback in Washington if they can tip enough statehouses their way, and thus come up with voter districts likely to elect Republicans to Congress again and again. Likewise, Democrats are working hard to defend their mapping turf.”

“Lawmakers in Iowa are about to launch their most overtly partisan chore: the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts. Every 10 years after the census is conducted, the Legislature must approve new congressional and legislative district lines reflecting changes in population, and the configuration of those lines dictates the politics of a state for the next decade. The task will be especially tricky because Iowa is among at least nine states likely to lose a seat in Congress. That means two of the current five are likely to be paired in a new district.”

MA Republican state committeewoman Cynthia E. Stead, writes, “Massachusetts, the home of the Gerry-mander, will begin its process in April 2011, when the apportionment of Congressional seats is announced after the 2010 census results are processed. Back in 2001, the Joint Redistricting Report said, ‘Lastly, some districts have been combined and new districts have been created. This is necessitated by the extraordinary growth in outer-suburban areas, the decrease in population in certain older urban areas, and the stagnant population in a number of developed suburbs. …That is where people have been moving. This proposal acknowledges that ours is an ever-changing Commonwealth. But as urban Democrats lose their strongholds, gerrymanders may become necessary.”