Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Florida, civics and headaches; Texas involves more than politics; Ohio takes the constitutional route; Tuscaloosa wants some representation and New York’s commission idea presents problems

The Florida Times-Union speculates that “a civics lesson in Scott Fortune’s congressional run” is ahead.  “The Beaches lawyer is planning to release a self-made documentary next week questioning the political border-drawing process that’s kept his opponent, U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, in a veritable fortress of voter demographics for the past 18 years.”

“Three ballot questions. Two lawsuits (and counting). One serious headache for voters,” so says the Tampa Tribune.  “Redistricting, the subject of three constitutional amendments headed for the November election ballot, is never a pretty process.  The next round of redistricting won’t start until late 2011. But with competing groups vying to change the rules of the game, it is already messier than usual.”

Ben Philpott of KUT News and the Texas Tribune reports, “Redistricting is a highly partisan exercise, but there’s likely to be more at work than mere politics in 2011. Shifts in the state’s population and demographics will play a large part in shaping where new congressional and legislative boundaries are set.”  Listen to audio of Ben HERE.

“The Ohio Senate this week is considering a measure recently passed in the House that would change the way the state’s legislative districts are drawn every 10 years,” according to the Marietta Times.  “The Senate passed its own version of a redistricting plan last year. If a compromise version can pass both chambers by Aug. 4, a constitutional amendment will appear on the November ballot. Voters must approve any change in the redistricting process since it’s a change to the state’s constitution.”

In Alabama, The Tuscaloosa News opines, “We can only hope the new Alabama Legislature that is also being elected this year will see fit to redraw districts so that someone from Tuscaloosa County, the fifth largest in the state, will have a fighting chance at election in the future.”

The Albany Times Union’s Peter G. Pollak writes, “After years of bashing the state Legislature for drawing districts that favor incumbents, the good government groups calling for reform received a boost when all of the major 2010 gubernatorial candidates endorsed the concept of an independent redistricting commission … Two problems stand in the way of achieving this kind of redistricting.  First, the state constitution requires the job to be done by the Legislature and there’s not enough time for a constitutional amendment to change things for this go-around. Thus, the Legislature will have the final say no matter how insulated a commission is created. Second, the reformers’ bills embody conflicting goals: Having districts that are both contiguous and compact makes it difficult not to break up existing political boundaries.  Another way to put it is there is a conflict between process goals and outcomes.”

Welcome to this week’s edition of “REDMAP Rundown,” a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s “REDMAP Rundown,” Norquist talks political investments, we hear more about why state races matter more than ever and in the states: Pennsylvania voting can change your life, Texas sees changes coming, Florida (and national) Democrats continue to fear the force, and the Delaware GOP is taking advantage of the national mood.

Grover Norquist writes, “Conservatives face a dilemma that can become an opportunity. The 2010 election will decide whether America continues to careen toward a future somewhere between France and Greece or puts on the brakes, stops the bleeding, and earns a pause that allows the forces of freedom to begin the rebuilding. November 2010 not only gives Republicans the opportunity to recapture the House by winning a net 40 seats and strengthening their position in the Senate to guarantee the ability to filibuster on any issue even if one or two Republicans go ‘wobbly,’ but the 37 gubernatorial races, 1,159 state senate seats, and 4,958 house seats at stake will decide who writes the redistricting lines for the U.S. Congress and the state legislatures themselves. If Republicans can win 107 key state legislative races in just 16 states they will fully control the drawing of nine new congressional districts awarded during 2011 reapportionment. A victory in the 107 key races would affect the redrawing of maps in five states projected to lose six congressional districts during 2011 reapportionment, which could ultimately result in a minimum of 20 new Republican U.S. House seats for the next 10 years.  Ed Gillespie, who is organizing the effort to win state legislative seats through the Republican State Leadership Committee, points out that it will cost Republicans 31.5 million non-federal dollars today to win those contested state legislative seats that will create safer Republican House seats that would otherwise cost 255 million federal dollars to hold over the next decade. (This is about as good an investment as one can make in politics.)

“According to the early projections for this year’s census, a major partisan realignment is again in the offing,” writes Peter Roff for U.S. News and World Reports.  “Most political forecasters are now looking seriously at the possibility that Republicans will win back control of Congress this year. They are seeing the forest but not the trees. The real battle to determine the nation’s political alignment for at least the next decade is happening down ballot and below the radar.  By law, the results of the 2010 census will lead to a reshuffling of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. And this year’s elections will in many cases determine who will have the authority to draw each state’s new congressional map, which, in turn, will shape the political battlefield until the next census in 2020. Both parties are girding for the fight, but the GOP is poised to emerge with its strongest hand in decades.”

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports, “Democrats have controlled the chamber for more than three years, but that could change in November. The party holds an edge of only 104-99, and with polls showing that Republicans could do well this year both in Pennsylvania and nationally, Republicans are bent on recapturing power.  ‘Given the national mood and the House districts that will be “in play” this November,’ said Harrisburg-based Republican political strategist Charlie Gerow, ‘there’s no question that Republicans believe they have a very good shot at regaining control of the state House.’”

We weighed in on PA Republicans making their job a little easier: “With support for Democrat policies slipping and voters at all levels throwing their support behind the GOP, Republicans marked the 56th and 57th state legislative special election victories [Tuesday] night, since President Barack Obama was elected.  In Pennsylvania’s 138th House District, Republican Marcia Hahn defeated Democrat Cory D. Miller and in the 147th House District, Republican Marcy Toepel was victorious over Democrat Bob Dodge.”

“Voting in today’s mid-term primary election can change your life, [Pennsylvania] political officials say.  This election will help decide who will represent you in Washington D.C.  Even though this year is not a high-profile election like the presidential year, it is just as important.  Because of this year’s Census, this election has deep, complex political implications.  Winners of state Senate and House races will be able to redistrict national congressional district boundaries based on the information provided by the Census.  The redistricting process is used to determine representation in government and determine the allocation of resources.

In Oregon, Gary Wilhelms writes, “Redistricting is the single most partisan political project our Legislature faces every 10 years. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Legislators are politicians, after all, and they are partisan.”

“Having waited 40 years for a congressman of its own, the Permian Basin and its political advocates hope statewide congressional redistricting next year does not reverse that achievement.  U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway, R-Midland, whose 11th Congressional District runs east 300 miles, said fall elections must raise the number of Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives in Austin from 77 to at least 80.”

Democrats are paying attention to redistricting too. Texas Rep. Mark Strama “sees more change coming. Lawmakers will tackle redistricting in 2011, and the 2012 elections, based on new political maps, could bring in a relatively large class of freshman. Another way to say it: A relatively large number of veterans could be done after the next session.”

On a national scale, the Dems are really taking it to extremes.  Our friends at the Huffington Post write, “In six months, voters may determine control of Congress for the next decade in elections for governors and legislatures that will control the redistricting process in most states.  Our opponents understand these high stakes and are highly-skilled practitioners in exploiting the redistricting process. Bush-era operatives including Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie recently reemerged with plans to take control of key state capitols. Rove clearly hopes to use redistricting in the states to resurrect his dashed dream of a permanent Republican majority.  Progressives must stop Rove and the Right’s redistricting plans in 2010.”

Florida is reminded of why redistricting matters.  The state “voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1996 and in 2008. … Yet the state’s congressional delegation is 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats. In the state Senate, it’s 26 Republicans and 13 Democrats, with one Palm Beach County vacancy that a Democrat soon will fill. In the House, it’s 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats.”

“One of the last by-products of the 2002 redistricting battle at the [Colorado] capitol is just a governor’s signature away from being reversed.  Tuesday, the Senate gave final approval to House Bill 1408, which would change the guidance to the courts that must create new congressional boundaries after each census, if the General Assembly fails to draw the maps for those districts.”

“The Delaware Republicans unfurled three new candidacies for the state House of Representatives on the same day, a sign they are really serious about trying to take back the majority. … The next General Assembly will be responsible for redistricting — the readjustment of the legislative district lines every 10 years after the census — and it gives the majority essentially a free hand at shoring up its own members.  The House has 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans. … The Republicans have the national mood of voter discontent on their side, as well as the political history that shows the president’s party typically losing legislative seats here in mid-term elections.”

Welcome to this week’s edition of “REDMAP Rundown,” a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly email gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s “REDMAP Rundown,” primaries matter, Arizona is looking at more clout, a California initiative survives, in Illinois … not so much. Louisiana examines the committee process, and in New York the big shots weigh in.  Back in DC, the FEC is deadlocked and the RSLC rolls.

“Three Republicans with strong party financial backing, including Mike Obergfell of Fort Wayne, won their Indiana House primary races Tuesday, setting up November matchups with Democrats that could tilt the narrowly divided chamber into GOP hands and decide which party controls redistricting,” reports The News-Sentinel.  “Republicans have a comfortable 33-17 edge in the state Senate, where only seven districts had contested primaries. With the upper hand in redistricting at stake, the House Republican Campaign Committee poured $165,000 into Klein’s primary run against Frances Katz in a district that includes southeastern Lake County and parts of Porter and Newton counties in northwest Indiana. Klein captured 66 percent of the vote with 95 percent of precincts reporting Tuesday.”

The Arizona Republic’s Dan Nowicki writes, “Arizona’s political clout will continue to swell nationally as a result of this year’s census, which likely will deliver the state one or possibly two new congressional seats because of the significant population growth over the past decade. … A new congressional district also would give the state another vote in the Electoral College, which decides presidential elections. As a result, Arizona would likely attract even more attention from White House candidates. Few contenders will risk ignoring a rising, increasingly centrist state such as Arizona, as President Barack Obama’s three visits here since taking office amply illustrate.  And psychologically, adding a seat in Congress is much better than the alternative of losing one, a pinch certain economically beleaguered states feel every 10 years as House demographics shift to reflect the up-to-date U.S. population numbers.”

“An initiative to add redrawing congressional districts to the duties of the Citizens Redistricting Commission has qualified for the November ballot” in California.  The Sacramento Bee reports,  “The Voters First Act for Congress would give the job of redrawing congressional district lines every 10 years to the 14-member citizen panel created under Proposition 11, approved in 2008. The first-of-its-kind commission is currently tasked with drafting state legislative and Board of Equalization districts.”

Illinois is a different story, however.  “Even without a constitutional amendment, [Democrat Pat Quinn] is promising fair legislative re-districting next year – if he’s still the governor,” according to The Associated Press.

In Louisiana, “Members of the Legislature’s Black Caucus on Wednesday began questioning the makeup of committees that will redraw legislative and other election district lines next year,” reports The Advocate.  “House and Senate Governmental Affairs Committees are the first stop in the once every decade remap process in which election districts are redrawn to reflect population shifts since the last census.”

“City Hall News captured this great line from Malcolm Smith saying Democrats  ‘are going to draw the lines so that Republicans will be in oblivion in the state of New York for the next 20 years.’ Not the kind of cynical political strategery that one really wants to get caught saying,” so says the New York Observer.

So, NBC New York asks, “Can legislative districts be re-drawn so that the bad guys don’t necessarily win? … Former Governor George Pataki [says] legislators would never consent to changing their districts to give a challenger a better chance to win.  But former New York City Mayor Edward Koch, leader of a new group called New York Uprising, retorted: ‘He’s dead wrong.’”

“After three hours of discussion on Thursday, a deadlocked Federal Election Commission postponed until next week an important decision about whether Members of Congress can raise soft money for some redistricting activities until next week. … On Monday, the FEC released two opposing draft advisory opinions — one that would allow and one that would forbid the trust from using federal lawmakers and candidates to raise unlimited funds for the organization.  The FEC’s decision will not affect the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Redistricting Majority Project or the Democrats’ Foundation for the Future, which are deeply involved in the redistricting process but are organized as 527s.”

Speaking of the good guys (us) “On another political front, Gillespie says he’s using his nationwide fundraising contacts to try to double the budget of the Republican State Leadership Committee from $20 million to $40 million for the two-year election cycle. … [He] notes that the group’s electoral mission could yield big dividends down the road, given that redistricting will follow the November elections. ‘These elections have an added benefit in that they can affect redistricting for the Congress for a decade.’”