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Election Day 2010 proved to be an even bigger “wave” election at the state level than anticipated. Republicans flipped at least 19 legislative bodies to Republican control and hold majorities in 10 of the 15 states that will gain or lose U.S. House seats and where the legislature plays a role in redrawing the map.

Republicans have an opportunity to create 20-25 new Republican Congressional Districts through the redistricting process over the next five election cycles, solidifying a Republican House majority.

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Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown. This addition is a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). For those who are new, this weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Translating legislative control, Dems learning the difference between 10 and 12, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RGA friends weigh in on a lasting majority, CSM sees a mad scramble, Iowa dealing with loss and Massachusetts is “home” of the gerrymander.

The Washington Post’s Lois Romano kicks off today’s Rundown, reporting, “As the Beltway remains riveted on November’s congressional midterm elections, another political war is taking shape in small communities nationwide … The reason: Next year, state legislatures will take up redistricting, the once-a-decade task of redrawing congressional boundaries based on population shifts gleaned through the census. Some of the biggest names in politics have jumped into the hand-to-hand combat with an intensity generally reserved for a presidential race. Among those at the forefront: Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee; former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.); Democratic strategist Harold Ickes; GOP strategist Karl Rove; and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … ‘Having control of a legislature can translate into U.S. House seats being drawn for Republicans for a decade — compared to fighting it out district by district for control of the House every two years, which would costs millions,’ said Gillespie, who is chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.”

“A Democrat who can win in 2010 can be assumed to have a relatively safe district, just as a Republican who won in 2006 and ’08 can,” James Taranto writes for the Wall Street Journal. In 2012, however, 428 of the 435 congressional districts will have been redrawn owing to reapportionment and redistricting (the only exceptions are those that are coterminous with sparsely populated states). Many incumbents will be protected, but some will find themselves in less-safe districts, or in intraparty battles with fellow incumbents in states that lose congressional seats.

Larry Sabato enters Politico’s Arena, saying, “Once lost, the House will be tough to regain during Obama’s presidency. Redistricting is going to help the GOP at least marginally, given the number of governorships and state legislative berths it will add this November.”

The Washington Post reports, “… by January, more than half of the states will probably be under new management, including some of the biggest and most important. … One of the first areas where the changes in the governors’ mansions could be felt will be in the redistricting wars that will break out next year. [RGA Executive Director Nick] Ayers said redistricting presents an opportunity to gain 15 to 26 House seats, depending on who controls the redistricting machinery in the states. That alone could offset whatever happens in House races this November. But the implications go beyond that. Reapportionment and redistricting will affect the shape of the House through much of the coming decade. If Republicans take over the House in November and control enough governorships [and state legislatures] in key states next year, they could use the redistricting process to virtually lock in a majority that could last for several election cycles.”

“All eyes are on the US House in this fall’s election, but that’s not the only place where a political earthquake might shake up power,” according to the Christian Science Monitor’s editorial board. “A mad scramble is also on to influence elections for state legislatures, as well as governors. National political bigwigs and big dollars – record amounts, actually – are focused on these local races. The reason? This is a census year, and it is these newly elected officials who will use the new population numbers to redraw the boundaries of voter districts. Those districts will then set the contours of power and policy for the next decade. Republicans see the opportunity for a long-lasting comeback in Washington if they can tip enough statehouses their way, and thus come up with voter districts likely to elect Republicans to Congress again and again. Likewise, Democrats are working hard to defend their mapping turf.”

“Lawmakers in Iowa are about to launch their most overtly partisan chore: the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts. Every 10 years after the census is conducted, the Legislature must approve new congressional and legislative district lines reflecting changes in population, and the configuration of those lines dictates the politics of a state for the next decade. The task will be especially tricky because Iowa is among at least nine states likely to lose a seat in Congress. That means two of the current five are likely to be paired in a new district.”

MA Republican state committeewoman Cynthia E. Stead, writes, “Massachusetts, the home of the Gerry-mander, will begin its process in April 2011, when the apportionment of Congressional seats is announced after the 2010 census results are processed. Back in 2001, the Joint Redistricting Report said, ‘Lastly, some districts have been combined and new districts have been created. This is necessitated by the extraordinary growth in outer-suburban areas, the decrease in population in certain older urban areas, and the stagnant population in a number of developed suburbs. …That is where people have been moving. This proposal acknowledges that ours is an ever-changing Commonwealth. But as urban Democrats lose their strongholds, gerrymanders may become necessary.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here

Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 08:21

From National Journal

It’s impossible to say exactly how much political players and organizers will spend on redistricting, partly because many nonparty groups driving the process face minimal disclosure requirements. But some estimates put redistricting-related expenditures — for legislative and gubernatorial campaigns, data analysis, map-drawing and court fights — at $200 million or more.

As usual, Democratic Party leaders are getting a big assist from labor-backed groups and loosely regulated outside organizations, including the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, which is largely exempt from any reporting rules. The group recently won approval from the Federal Election Commission to collect soft (unregulated) money with the help of federal candidates and officeholders. Reform advocates had objected that this violates the 2002 soft money ban.

GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.

Read the rest

Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:54

From the Stockton Record

About 300 Californians remain from the 30,000 who answered the call to join a citizens’ panel to take over the job of drawing the borders of the districts making up the political landscape of the state.

Six of the remaining applicants live in San Joaquin County. Some of them are surprised they made it this far, and all five reached by The Record say they realize they have a long way to go if they are going to be one of the 14 members of the first Citizens Redistricting Commission, authorized when voters approved Proposition 11, the Voters First Act, in 2008.

It’s been challenging, dynamic and interesting to be a part of the process so far, said Joan Matthews of Tracy. She was a trustee when San Joaquin Delta College redrew its district lines, and she’s been reading up in case she does go the distance. “I’m curious to how things work. I like to see things operate. … I would look forward to the challenge,” said Matthews, 74 and an owner of the Tracy Press.

Read the rest

Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:44

Via North Jersey dot com

Many political experts are predicting that because of stagnant population growth, New Jersey will lose one of its 13 congressional districts to another state. Many political pundits say that it will be one of the suburban districts that will get carved up. It may lead to two incumbent Republicans facing off in a June primary for the right to appear on the ballot of the November 2012 general election.

Redistricting could have even greater consequences on the state level. Several complicated court cases, specifically Bartlett v. Strickland, McNeil v. Legislative Apportionment and others, may produce a more favorable map for New Jersey Republicans. Both parties will be vying to get a “good map.” A “good map” is one that gives a particular party a better or at least a fighting chance of securing a majority in one or both houses. In 2001, Republicans got a “bad map.”

A good Republican map could result in Republican majorities in the New Jersey Senate and Assembly in 2012. With Chris Christie in the governor’s seat and Republican majorities in both houses, 2012 could make this year look like a yawner. Big changes could come to the state if Republicans can get a “good map” and win.

Read the rest

Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:37

From the San Angelo Standard Times

If redistricting weren’t so serious, it would be funny.

As Forrest Gump’s mama says about life in the 1994 movie, “It’s like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

Most folks don’t know, or care, about legislative and congressional redistricting, to be done in the legislative session beginning in January, by the legislators mostly chosen in this year’s election.

Don’t care, that is, until they see a relatively compact Austin-based congressional district split into three — one reaching to Houston, one to South Texas, and one to San Antonio and West Texas.

Read the rest

Last Updated on Friday, 16 July 2010 07:51

 

 

 

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