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MI: The importance of Supreme Court races
Written by admin
Wednesday, 1 September 2010 09:55

From the Michigan Messenger

Last week’s unexpected resignation by Justice Elizabeth Weaver, a Republican, and subsequent replacement by Justice Alton Thomas Davis, a Democrat, may not only reshape the Michigan Supreme Court, it could change the entire electoral map of the state for the next ten years.

Next year when the 2010 census data is released Michigan’s political boundaries will be redrawn by the legislature, and if they cannot agree on the redistricting map then the state Supreme Court will take up the matter. Because the shape of districts has an enormous effect on who can get elected, observers are already speculating on what last week’s abrupt resignation might mean for that process.

Bob LaBrant of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce told columnist Peter Luke that the change on the court “puts the Democrats in the driver’s seat as far as redistricting is concerned. (Weaver) would have been a question mark, but that question mark has been removed.”

The term that Davis was appointed to fill only runs through this year, but he has already been nominated for reelection by the Democrats, and he will have an advantage over others because he will be designated on the ballot as an incumbent.

But Richard McLelland is a Michigan State University professor of public relations and practicing attorney with expertise in government ethics, lobbying regulation and campaign finance issues, tells the Michigan Messenger that Granholm’s appointment of Davis was dirty dealing that may damage Davis’ candidacy this fall.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 1 September 2010 09:55
MI: Fall elections impact to be felt for years
Written by admin
Wednesday, 1 September 2010 06:59

From the Daily Tribune

But 10 years ago in Michigan, Republicans controlled the state House, Senate and governor’s office, and they drew the current district boundaries to their liking with little risk of legal challenge to their map.

That’s not the case this year, when Democrats control the state House and governor’s office, and Republicans control the state Senate.

And that’s why state legislative races have gotten a lot of attention this year.

A split in control of the House and Senate means the courts likely will decide on a redistricting plan, as was the case 20 years ago, making election to the state’s courts an election priority this year, too.

In Michigan and across the country, the outcome of state legislative races could well determine the makeup of Congress in the 2012 election and beyond.

For certain, Michigan stands to lose one of its congressional seats this year, not because the state has lost so much in population over the past decade – it has lost a little – but because other states have grown so much faster.

“Michigan has lost population,” Patterson said. “When I started, there were 19 congressional seats, I think we’re going down now to 14.”

Control of the state Legislature could influence whether Michigan’s remaining congressional seats lean toward the Democrats or toward the Republicans.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 1 September 2010 06:59
Redistricting is going to hurt one party…
Written by admin
Friday, 27 August 2010 10:55

From Michael Barone

Eighteen months ago, it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. An optimistic scenario for Democrats, extrapolating from the 2008 election results, was that if they could gain three governorships and three state senates and otherwise hold what they had, they would control redistricting in 14 states with more than five districts, including California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Those states are projected to have 195 districts in the House elected in 2012. Clever redistricting could move between one and two dozen into the Democratic column. That would have been the Democrats’ best redistricting cycle since the one following the 1980 Census.

But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.

Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.

This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 Census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.

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Last Updated on Friday, 27 August 2010 10:55
National: The Great and the Small
Written by admin
Thursday, 12 August 2010 08:24

From Reid Wilson at National Journal

It’s no surprise that legislative campaigns feel the wind at their backs — or in their faces — more than federal ones, strategists on both sides say. After all, legislators run their campaigns with much less cash than higher-ticket races, rendering them unable to define themselves and therefore leaving their fates dependent on voters’ moods.

“There are fewer resources dedicated to these downballot races. The name I.D. is going to be lower, so they are more susceptible to the national wave,” said Chris Jankowski, a GOP strategist who heads REDMAP, the party’s top redistricting initiative.

This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House.

All this matters because, as both parties say, control of governor’s mansions and state legislatures means control of the pen that draws district lines. Republicans are expected to do well in governor’s races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania — all seats currently held by Democrats.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 12 August 2010 08:24
National: Forget Congress
Written by admin
Friday, 6 August 2010 07:35

From Chuck Raasch

All told, 384 of 435 congressional district boundaries will be redrawn by state legislatures in 36 states, according to the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, an organization set up by Democrats to prepare for redistricting court fights. The rest are either in single-district states or states where commissions hold sway over new boundaries.

Redistricting is the process whereby congressional boundaries are redrawn every 10 years, based on new population numbers provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Political signs point to a Republican year in state legislative races this fall, and that could spell trouble for Democrats in Washington for years to come,” said Tim Storey, an analyst with the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures.

Storey said 27 state houses or senate chambers could change control to the other party.

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Last Updated on Friday, 6 August 2010 07:35
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