From Michael Barone

Eighteen months ago, it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. An optimistic scenario for Democrats, extrapolating from the 2008 election results, was that if they could gain three governorships and three state senates and otherwise hold what they had, they would control redistricting in 14 states with more than five districts, including California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Those states are projected to have 195 districts in the House elected in 2012. Clever redistricting could move between one and two dozen into the Democratic column. That would have been the Democrats’ best redistricting cycle since the one following the 1980 Census.

But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.

Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.

This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 Census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.

Read the rest

From American Prospect

In bad economic times, the electorate grows surly, and if “Throw the bums out!” is the prevailing mood, you’re in trouble if you’re one of the bums. That presents Democrats with a problem: They are the face of the political establishment not just nationally but in states as well.

Today, Democrats control 27 state legislatures, compared to the 14 Republicans control (eight are split, and Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral legislature). This was a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago: In the previous three election cycles, Democrats gained a net of 374 state house seats and 68 state senate seats.

But that success has made them vulnerable, in much the same way as the gains made by congressional Democrats in 2006 and 2008 made them vulnerable. Democrats have to defend a lot of unsafe ground, including seats they managed to win in traditionally conservative districts. That makes for an unusually competitive year; according to Governing magazine’s Louis Jacobson, “Just under one-third (31 percent) of the legislative chambers that are up this fall are considered ‘in play’ — that is, rated tossup, lean Democratic or lean Republican. … Currently, the Democrats have 21 chambers in play, compared to just four for the Republicans — a burden five times as heavy for the Democrats.”

Read the rest…