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National: Losing more in blue states than red
Written by admin
Thursday, 5 August 2010 08:01

From the Hill

If the party’s gubernatorial candidates were to emerge with wins in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan — all states where Republicans either lead or are tied in recent polls — and the GOP holds or wins control of legislative chambers in those same states, Republicans could monopolize the post-2010 redraw.

“If Republicans do really well on Election Day, they could swing a lot more seats that they would have control over,” said analyst Kimball Brace, who heads Election Data Services, a bipartisan firm that specializes in the census and redistricting. “A shift of 10 to 15 [state legislative] chambers is enough to swing [the process] dramatically toward the Republicans.”

Based on census data from earlier this year, Brace estimates a total of eight states will gain congressional seats this time around, with Texas projected to be the biggest gainer, with as many as four additional seats. Ohio is projected to lose two seats, while Pennsylvania and Michigan are expected to lose one. Florida is likely to gain one.

Strategists note that trends point to the loss of more congressional seats in blue states than in red ones.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 5 August 2010 08:01
Harlem, Watts face uncertain future
Written by admin
Thursday, 5 August 2010 07:27

From Politico

“There are no givens. Anything can happen” in redistricting, said former Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who played a major role in his home state’s 2002 redistricting and now chairs REDMAP, the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Redistricting Majority Project.

REDMAP hopes to spend $20 million this fall in state legislative races to try to secure GOP majorities in battleground states — which would allow Republicans to draw congressional districts and could affect seats in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas depending partly on the outcome of this year’s congressional elections. The New York Senate, which Democrats now control 32 to 30, is a prime Reynolds target — with several seats in play that are currently held by each party.
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Although the redistricting impact is unpredictable, it’s noteworthy that the New York Senate’s top two Democratic leaders — Malcolm Smith and John Sampson — are African-Americans. “A Republican Senate would be very different,” said Reynolds, and it might be more solicitous of Hispanic interests in Rangel’s district and elsewhere.

Although Republican voters will have little say in the outcome of districts like those of Rangel and Waters — which are heavily Democratic — redistricting in one part of a state can affect the map-drawing in another part. “We tell our members to get to know your state legislators because they are the ones who control redistricting,” said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.), vice chairman of redistricting for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 5 August 2010 07:27
New Battle Lines Drawn Over Redistricting
Written by admin
Monday, 19 July 2010 07:54

From National Journal

It’s impossible to say exactly how much political players and organizers will spend on redistricting, partly because many nonparty groups driving the process face minimal disclosure requirements. But some estimates put redistricting-related expenditures — for legislative and gubernatorial campaigns, data analysis, map-drawing and court fights — at $200 million or more.

As usual, Democratic Party leaders are getting a big assist from labor-backed groups and loosely regulated outside organizations, including the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, which is largely exempt from any reporting rules. The group recently won approval from the Federal Election Commission to collect soft (unregulated) money with the help of federal candidates and officeholders. Reform advocates had objected that this violates the 2002 soft money ban.

GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.

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Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:54
CA: Draft day in California for redistricting commission
Written by admin
Monday, 19 July 2010 07:44

From the Stockton Record

About 300 Californians remain from the 30,000 who answered the call to join a citizens’ panel to take over the job of drawing the borders of the districts making up the political landscape of the state.

Six of the remaining applicants live in San Joaquin County. Some of them are surprised they made it this far, and all five reached by The Record say they realize they have a long way to go if they are going to be one of the 14 members of the first Citizens Redistricting Commission, authorized when voters approved Proposition 11, the Voters First Act, in 2008.

It’s been challenging, dynamic and interesting to be a part of the process so far, said Joan Matthews of Tracy. She was a trustee when San Joaquin Delta College redrew its district lines, and she’s been reading up in case she does go the distance. “I’m curious to how things work. I like to see things operate. … I would look forward to the challenge,” said Matthews, 74 and an owner of the Tracy Press.

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Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:44
NJ: It’s an 800 pound gorilla
Written by admin
Monday, 19 July 2010 07:37

Via North Jersey dot com

Many political experts are predicting that because of stagnant population growth, New Jersey will lose one of its 13 congressional districts to another state. Many political pundits say that it will be one of the suburban districts that will get carved up. It may lead to two incumbent Republicans facing off in a June primary for the right to appear on the ballot of the November 2012 general election.

Redistricting could have even greater consequences on the state level. Several complicated court cases, specifically Bartlett v. Strickland, McNeil v. Legislative Apportionment and others, may produce a more favorable map for New Jersey Republicans. Both parties will be vying to get a “good map.” A “good map” is one that gives a particular party a better or at least a fighting chance of securing a majority in one or both houses. In 2001, Republicans got a “bad map.”

A good Republican map could result in Republican majorities in the New Jersey Senate and Assembly in 2012. With Chris Christie in the governor’s seat and Republican majorities in both houses, 2012 could make this year look like a yawner. Big changes could come to the state if Republicans can get a “good map” and win.

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Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:37
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