Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Obama’s gift to the GOP, Dems losing sleep over Ohio, Conspicuous losses, Pennsylvania battle is on and Hurricanes in North Carolina.

Kim Strassel opines in the Wall Street Journal, “Come Nov. 3, the bigger criticism may be the extent to which the White House has cost Democrats their grip on the electoral map—not just this cycle but for some time to come. … Mr. Obama’s other gift to Democrats is that he’s managed all of this in a year ending with ‘0.’ We just had a census. Come 2011, state legislatures and governors will use the results to redraw congressional lines. The party that controls the state is able to draw the lines in ways that benefits its side for the next 10 years.  And as big as the GOP revival is looking nationally, it’s looking even bigger from a state level. Republicans are expected to finish this election with between 30 and 36 of the governorships. The Republican State Leadership Committee, which backs state legislative candidates, is already claiming victory in six state chambers and estimates that another 11 are in play.  More important is where these gains take place—Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, for starters. These are states expected to lose House seats because of the census, and the GOP may control the cutting. Or, consider this: Of the 75 most competitive House districts, 35 are in areas where Republicans feel confident they will take control of a legislative chamber. The GOP could be redrawing the map in its favor for nearly half the nation’s swing districts.”

Eleanor Clift writes in Politics Daily that state legislative races are “hugely important, and the political professionals are working these races like crazy, with Republicans pouring money into them and Democrats ringing the alarm bell that their party better wake up or risk being the minority in Washington for a decade.  ‘Losing a few seats in Massachusetts won’t cost us any sleep,’ says Tom Bonier with NEC Services, a group that advises Democrats on redistricting. But losing seats in Ohio, where Democrats have a 53-to-46 edge over Republicans, could cost Democrats three or four House seats next time around.  After gaining state legislative seats in the ’04, ’06 and ’08 elections, the Democrats are looking at a scenario where these gains could be swept away in the one election that particularly matters, the one that creates the power grid for redistricting.”

“A new study has blue states seeing red,” according to the American Spectator.  “Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will likely each lose a congressional seat in redistricting. New York and Ohio should lose two seats. … Conspicuously, states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are projected to lose eleven of those twelve subtracted seats. Conspicuously, states that voted for John McCain are expected to gain ten of the twelve new seats. Should Election Data Services, Inc.’s numbers hold up, Texas would gain four seats, Florida would add two, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington would each claim a new seat.  Red states are gaining political clout at the expense of blue states. This makes the electoral map an even more elusive puzzle for President Obama to solve in 2012.”

“The battle for control of the state House of Representatives is on” in Pennsylvania, reports The Patriot-News.  “Republicans see nothing standing in the way of them regaining the majority after four years of Democratic control. … House Democratic campaign operatives … want a seat at the table next year when the Legislature and governor tackle the once-in-a-decade task of redrawing congressional district boundaries.  Republicans are virtually assured that they have a say in that process. The GOP holds a 10-seat advantage in the 50-member state Senate. … Rep. Dave Reed, chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee, expressed optimism that Election Day will end on a happy note for the GOP.  ‘We feel very good about where we’re at,’ said Reed, R-Indiana County. ‘Our incumbents are very strong across the board. Certainly, a couple of them will be targeted along the way just as there will be a number of Democratic incumbents targeted. But we feel overall we’re going to be back in the majority.’”

“No hurricanes for North Carolina so far this year. But we know one storm that is coming to our state this fall. In fact, we know the exact date: Nov. 2.”  UNC-TV’s D.G. Martin writes, “the early political hurricane-watch reporters are predicting it could be a Category 5 storm, blowing away everything in its path.  North Carolina Republican leaders are drooling at the prospect of taking charge of both houses of the legislature and overseeing the post-census redistricting of every congressional and state legislative seat.  Some North Carolina Democrats are walking around in a daze, shell-shocked at the turn in public opinion from the time of the great Democratic victories of two years ago.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: New predictions, 2010’s consequences, Finishing strong, Raising the stakes, Hanging in the balance and the Wave that’s about to hit …

“Ten states, including Illinois, New York and Ohio, could lose seats in the House of Representatives, according to new predictions that underscore the battles already brewing over how to draw congressional district boundaries.”  USA Today reports, “Florida, South Carolina, Texas and five other states could gain House seats by the 2012 election as part of the once-in-a-decade apportionment process triggered by the Census, estimates by the non-partisan Election Data Services show.  Chris Jankowski, who directs the redistricting effort for the Republican State Leadership Committee, predicts the GOP could add as many as 25 seats in Congress depending on how boundary lines are drawn in key states. The group is ready to spend $20 million to elect Republican state lawmakers who could affect the process, he said.  ‘We see a tremendous opportunity to impact control of Congress in 2012 through the state elections that are about to take place,’ Jankowski said.”

Peter Roff writes in U.S. News and World Reports, “It’s beginning to look like the Democrats are going to have to deal with the consequences of the 2010 election for a very, very long time.  The Republican State Leadership Committee, an organization that focuses on GOP state legislative races reports that the American political landscape has changed dramatically over the last two years. ‘The 2010 state legislative elections,’ the committee says, ‘have become a referendum on the Democrat approach to the economy and government spending at all levels.’  The committee’s September’s 2010 analysis says, ‘In state after state, Democrat governors and legislatures responded to the economic crisis by increasing taxes and failing to cut spending, mirroring the approach so aggressively pursued by President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats.’  The upshot of all this is that the move by voters, especially independents, back toward the Republicans could hand the GOP the pens with which it can redraw congressional lines in a number of important states–thus altering the makeup of the Congress for the next decade.”

“Earlier today, National Review Online caught up with Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, outside of the Newseum. We asked Gillespie, a former counselor to Pres. George W. Bush and RNC chairman, about what the GOP needs to do to finish strong in the final stretch of the midterm campaign.”

“The stakes are high: More than 6,100 state legislative seats and a record 37 governorships are up for grabs Nov. 2. The winners will influence policy on everything from taxes to implementation of the nation’s health care law. They will draw new boundaries for legislative and congressional districts that will long shape the political landscape,” reports USA Today.  “The Republican Governors Association (RGA) collected a record $58.3 million through June 30, compared with $40.4 million for its Democratic counterpart, federal records show. The Republican State Leadership Committee had a more than 3-to-1 fundraising edge over the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee at the end of August.”

“Hanging in the balance is which party will win control of the 100-member Indiana House not just for the next two years, but also potentially for the next decade. To the winner goes the power to either boost or block Gov. Mitch Daniels’ agenda in his final two years as governor and the authority to draw the state’s legislative maps.  House Minority Leader Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, and others say voters know what’s at stake.  ‘Most folks that I talk to are aware that this is a critical election,’ said Bosma, who blames the Democrat-drawn maps of 2000 for his party holding only 48 of the 100 House seats.  ‘Many presume that critical element is due to what’s going on in Washington, D.C. But a big handful of people — normal, everyday folks — understand that the General Assembly elected this year will really pre-select legislative and congressional leaders for the next decade. Not the people, but the party.’”

And finally, Stuart Rothenberg writes, “Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a ‘normal’ political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.  Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory has larger ramifications than merely who will control the House for the next two years.  Waves seem to work themselves down the ballot, and a national Republican Congressional wave surely is going to be mirrored by strong GOP gains in state legislatures and gubernatorial contests.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s edition of the Rundown: The latest REDMAP Report expands the playing field, On the ground in Pennsylvania, Cross in Illinois, Indiana’s impending replacement, Hard to identify Arkansas Dems, Florida rules and North Carolina gets ready.

“Republicans, who seem to be pretty confident about the midterm elections on a congressional level, also are feeling pretty good about their prospects back in the states. … [RSLC Chairman] Ed Gillespie said … that ‘things have only gotten better’ since the committee released its initial report.” (New York Times, 9.16.2010)

“The report increases the number of expected Republican pick-ups to six legislative chambers — adding the North Carolina and Michigan houses, with at least 11 other Democrat-controlled chambers solidly in play. … It predicts that Democrats will make no gains this election season in state house control.” (Los Angeles Times, 9.16.2010)

State Legislatures Looking Red” (National Review’s The Corner, 9.16.2010)

“Top Republican strategists are becoming more confident that their gains in congressional races will have a down ballot impact on state legislature elections — further bolstering Republican power in next year’s once-a-decade redistricting.” (Politico, 9.16.2010)

“The new REDMAP report … said Thursday that economic anxiety and concerns over taxes and spending at the national level are trickling down to races.” (The Hill, 9.16.2010)

“GOP Expands State Legislature Playing Field: Republicans are increasingly bullish that they will capitalize on the national mood and make significant inroads in state legislatures this fall. … The RSLC will seek to capitalize on national issues in each of these districts.” (Hotline On Call, 9.16.2010)

“Republicans in November will win control of more state legislatures than previously projected, according to a report released Thursday, which could lead to more Republican drawn U.S. House districts during redistricting next year.” (The Daily Caller, 9.16.2010)

“Democrats have been fighting to regain control of the Texas House ahead of the next remap but top GOP strategists declared today that the fight is over, and they won. Even worse for Democrats, the [RSLC] is predicting that Republicans will retake a half-dozen state legislative chambers across the country, and probably 11 others.” (Dallas Morning News, 9.16.2010)

NPR’s Mara Liasson puts the magnifying glass on both party’s efforts to shape the redistricting debate. She’s on location in Pennsylvania’s 161st House District where Republican Joe Hackett is poised to pick the seat up for Republicans.

“Tom Cross is on a crusade. And he has put Mike Madigan squarely in his cross hairs,” writes the Carol Marin in the Chicago Sun-Times. “The Republican minority leader from Oswego thinks he and his party have a realistic chance of wresting control of the Illinois House from the iron-fisted grip of the all-powerful Speaker Madigan and the Democrats. … Late last week, the national Republican State Leadership Committee added Illinois to its tier-one priorities targeting legislative chambers ripe for voter revolt. According to the Republican group’s political director, Ben Cannatti, they’ve already begun putting ‘resources into winnable seats in Illinois.’”

The Indianapolis Star reports, “By all indications, voter enthusiasm Nov. 2 will dictate the outcome of [tax caps, Evan Bayh’s open Senate seat or Republican hopes of regaining a majority in the Indiana House]. If Democrats have a lackluster showing at the polls, if tea-party conservatives turn up as expected, and if property taxpayers stick to their guns, the following will happen … Brian Bosma will replace Pat Bauer as speaker of the Indiana House, and Republicans will get to control the important redistricting process that occurs after each decennial census.”

“For decades, Democrats have held most state and local elected positions from U.S. Senate to constable in Arkansas, but a new poll shows barely four in 10 voters identify with the Democratic Party this year.” The Arkansas News writes, “In state and local elections, poll respondents were about even in their choices — 41 percent said they feel closer to Democrats and 39 percent said they feel closer to Republicans. Twenty percent said neither or that they did not know. ‘The fact that they’re equal really does end up being a big positive for the Republicans …” said Andrew Dowdle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Legislative redistricting next year in advance of the 2012 elections also will bode well for Republicans as Arkansas’ population base continues to shift from southern and eastern Arkansas to the GOP stronghold in Northwest Arkansas.”

The Florida Times-Union reports, “When voters head to the polls in November, they will cast three votes that could reshape the political future of the state – and the nation.” In a separate story, the paper writes, “A campaign launched Monday to oppose a set of redistricting rules on the November ballot highlights a rift among black and Hispanic officials over what the proposed standards could mean for minority representation. … ‘In politics, you don’t have permanent friends, you don’t have permanent enemies, you have permanent causes,” [U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown] said. ‘I think the cause of making sure that we continue to elect African-Americans in the state of Florida is crucial.’”

And in North Carolina, political reporter Jim Morrill walks through the key races noting, “The next General Assembly will redraw legislative and congressional districts that will be in effect until 2021.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.