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Posts Tagged ‘Redistricting’

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National: The Great and the Small
Written by admin
Thursday, 12 August 2010 08:24

From Reid Wilson at National Journal

It’s no surprise that legislative campaigns feel the wind at their backs — or in their faces — more than federal ones, strategists on both sides say. After all, legislators run their campaigns with much less cash than higher-ticket races, rendering them unable to define themselves and therefore leaving their fates dependent on voters’ moods.

“There are fewer resources dedicated to these downballot races. The name I.D. is going to be lower, so they are more susceptible to the national wave,” said Chris Jankowski, a GOP strategist who heads REDMAP, the party’s top redistricting initiative.

This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House.

All this matters because, as both parties say, control of governor’s mansions and state legislatures means control of the pen that draws district lines. Republicans are expected to do well in governor’s races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania — all seats currently held by Democrats.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 12 August 2010 08:24
National: Forget Congress
Written by admin
Friday, 6 August 2010 07:35

From Chuck Raasch

All told, 384 of 435 congressional district boundaries will be redrawn by state legislatures in 36 states, according to the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, an organization set up by Democrats to prepare for redistricting court fights. The rest are either in single-district states or states where commissions hold sway over new boundaries.

Redistricting is the process whereby congressional boundaries are redrawn every 10 years, based on new population numbers provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Political signs point to a Republican year in state legislative races this fall, and that could spell trouble for Democrats in Washington for years to come,” said Tim Storey, an analyst with the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures.

Storey said 27 state houses or senate chambers could change control to the other party.

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Last Updated on Friday, 6 August 2010 07:35
National: Losing more in blue states than red
Written by admin
Thursday, 5 August 2010 08:01

From the Hill

If the party’s gubernatorial candidates were to emerge with wins in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan — all states where Republicans either lead or are tied in recent polls — and the GOP holds or wins control of legislative chambers in those same states, Republicans could monopolize the post-2010 redraw.

“If Republicans do really well on Election Day, they could swing a lot more seats that they would have control over,” said analyst Kimball Brace, who heads Election Data Services, a bipartisan firm that specializes in the census and redistricting. “A shift of 10 to 15 [state legislative] chambers is enough to swing [the process] dramatically toward the Republicans.”

Based on census data from earlier this year, Brace estimates a total of eight states will gain congressional seats this time around, with Texas projected to be the biggest gainer, with as many as four additional seats. Ohio is projected to lose two seats, while Pennsylvania and Michigan are expected to lose one. Florida is likely to gain one.

Strategists note that trends point to the loss of more congressional seats in blue states than in red ones.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 5 August 2010 08:01
Harlem, Watts face uncertain future
Written by admin
Thursday, 5 August 2010 07:27

From Politico

“There are no givens. Anything can happen” in redistricting, said former Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who played a major role in his home state’s 2002 redistricting and now chairs REDMAP, the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Redistricting Majority Project.

REDMAP hopes to spend $20 million this fall in state legislative races to try to secure GOP majorities in battleground states — which would allow Republicans to draw congressional districts and could affect seats in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas depending partly on the outcome of this year’s congressional elections. The New York Senate, which Democrats now control 32 to 30, is a prime Reynolds target — with several seats in play that are currently held by each party.
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Although the redistricting impact is unpredictable, it’s noteworthy that the New York Senate’s top two Democratic leaders — Malcolm Smith and John Sampson — are African-Americans. “A Republican Senate would be very different,” said Reynolds, and it might be more solicitous of Hispanic interests in Rangel’s district and elsewhere.

Although Republican voters will have little say in the outcome of districts like those of Rangel and Waters — which are heavily Democratic — redistricting in one part of a state can affect the map-drawing in another part. “We tell our members to get to know your state legislators because they are the ones who control redistricting,” said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.), vice chairman of redistricting for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

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Last Updated on Thursday, 5 August 2010 07:27
New Battle Lines Drawn Over Redistricting
Written by admin
Monday, 19 July 2010 07:54

From National Journal

It’s impossible to say exactly how much political players and organizers will spend on redistricting, partly because many nonparty groups driving the process face minimal disclosure requirements. But some estimates put redistricting-related expenditures — for legislative and gubernatorial campaigns, data analysis, map-drawing and court fights — at $200 million or more.

As usual, Democratic Party leaders are getting a big assist from labor-backed groups and loosely regulated outside organizations, including the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, which is largely exempt from any reporting rules. The group recently won approval from the Federal Election Commission to collect soft (unregulated) money with the help of federal candidates and officeholders. Reform advocates had objected that this violates the 2002 soft money ban.

GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.

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Last Updated on Monday, 19 July 2010 07:54
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