The first test of both parties redistricting efforts will be in Virginia in 2009 (sorry New Jersey, but you handle things with the 13 member New Jersey Redistricting Commission). The folks over at FiveThirtyEight.com do a pretty intense unpacking of Virginia House of Delegate races as it relates to redistricting. As they point out – redistricting in Virginia is handled by the state senate, the House of Delegates, and the governor. The senate will remain in D control until after redistricting, the governor’s office is in play, and the House of Delegates is where the real battles will occur. Republican House Speaker Bill Howell has done a spectacular job of keeping the House in GOP hands despite back to back Democrat years in the commonwealth. It’s been important every year, but never more important than this year. From FiveThirtyEight:
But underneath all the thunder and lightning and money being hurled around in the gubernatorial primary, there is pitched battle for control of the State House, and with it a significant stake in the coming redistricting. How it shakes out below the break. Operating far below the public awareness levels of the three statewide elections (Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General) are the one hundred races for the Virginia House of Delegates, which is what the lower chamber of the state legislature is called in Virginia. Why should anyone outside of Virginia care whether the Democrats or the Republicans control the Virginia House of Delegates? Collectively, the House of Delegates comprises one leg of the three-legged stool (the other two are the governor and the state senate) that will determine the lines that demarcate all the new 2010 census-based congressional districts and state legislative districts in the state of Virginia for the next decade. (Because Virginia is one of the rare states that holds elections in odd numbered years, the new post-2010 census lines actually go into effect in Virginia in 2011, before everywhere else in the country implements new lines in 2012.) The 2009 elections are the last for the House of Delegates before redistricting.