From Reid Wilson at National Journal

It’s no surprise that legislative campaigns feel the wind at their backs — or in their faces — more than federal ones, strategists on both sides say. After all, legislators run their campaigns with much less cash than higher-ticket races, rendering them unable to define themselves and therefore leaving their fates dependent on voters’ moods.

“There are fewer resources dedicated to these downballot races. The name I.D. is going to be lower, so they are more susceptible to the national wave,” said Chris Jankowski, a GOP strategist who heads REDMAP, the party’s top redistricting initiative.

This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House.

All this matters because, as both parties say, control of governor’s mansions and state legislatures means control of the pen that draws district lines. Republicans are expected to do well in governor’s races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania — all seats currently held by Democrats.

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