From American Prospect
In bad economic times, the electorate grows surly, and if “Throw the bums out!” is the prevailing mood, you’re in trouble if you’re one of the bums. That presents Democrats with a problem: They are the face of the political establishment not just nationally but in states as well.
Today, Democrats control 27 state legislatures, compared to the 14 Republicans control (eight are split, and Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral legislature). This was a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago: In the previous three election cycles, Democrats gained a net of 374 state house seats and 68 state senate seats.
But that success has made them vulnerable, in much the same way as the gains made by congressional Democrats in 2006 and 2008 made them vulnerable. Democrats have to defend a lot of unsafe ground, including seats they managed to win in traditionally conservative districts. That makes for an unusually competitive year; according to Governing magazine’s Louis Jacobson, “Just under one-third (31 percent) of the legislative chambers that are up this fall are considered ‘in play’ — that is, rated tossup, lean Democratic or lean Republican. … Currently, the Democrats have 21 chambers in play, compared to just four for the Republicans — a burden five times as heavy for the Democrats.”